DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/02/2025
A small upward movement seen on the near delivery contracts with the curve holding steady was seen yesterday.
Colder temperatures are expected for the week ahead, much lower than seasonal normal levels, which is likely to add some further pressure to EU gas stocks and in turn could add some further gap to the summer-winter spread where a €6 negative delta currently remains.
Yesterday the US postponed planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico but pressed ahead with those intended for China. Overnight China retaliated with plans to impose tariffs on US imports including US LNG to take effect next week. The amount of LNG exported to China however is not significant in comparison to other destinations, with Europe dominating the destinations list.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €53.79 (from €53.24) and the NBP Front Month contract at 130.85p (from 130.54p).
Njord and Sleipner on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 322mcm (326), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 52.65% (53.11%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 11 (11).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €53, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €53, Front Season €53 (vs €54 and €53)
Curve NBP Front Month 131p, Front Season 128p (vs 131p and 128p)
UK Gas NBP spot 136p (from 132p)
UK Power Base spot £108 (from £119)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £108 (£107) and Front Season at £99 (£99).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($76) and EUAs are at €81 (€84). Henry Hub is at $3.35 ($3.04) and JKM is at $14.41 ($14.44) with TTF Equiv of $16.24 ($16.24).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 04/02/2025
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