DAILY MARKET REPORT – 03/02/2025
Welcome along to February.
Markets continued their upward trajectory at the end of the week with continued concerns playing out injecting further volatility for the bulls to push prices higher still.
The latest colder temperature forecasts for February and now into early March will only add to those concerns listed throughout last week.
Price levels are now simply at highs not seen for a while and show no immediate sign of abating. At the same time, although we are nowhere near the trigger levels, the EUs Energy Crisis Gas Cap (of €180) expired on Friday having never been needed.
Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €53.24 (from €51.44) and the NBP Front Month contract at 130.54p (from 126.34p).
No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 326mcm (325), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 53.11% (54.65%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 11 (12).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €54, UP €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €54, Front Season €53 (vs €53 and €51)
Curve NBP Front Month 131p, Front Season 128p (vs 126p and 124p)
UK Gas NBP spot 132p (from 132p)
UK Power Base spot £119 (from £120)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £107 (£118) and Front Season at £99 (£96).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($77) and EUAs are at €84 (€83). Henry Hub is at $3.04 ($3.05) and JKM is at $14.44 ($14.23) with TTF Equiv of $16.24 ($15.68).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 03/02/2025
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