Market Insight
Tony Jordan
30 January 2025

Market Insights 30/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 30/01/2025

A very bullish session seen yesterday as front month prices rallied to fresh highs once again with the near-term curve being pulled with it.

Updated temperature forecasts now showing February to be colder than previously expected which will put further demand on gas storage withdrawals – which are already under pressure.

In addition to that Ukraine stated yesterday that it urgently needs to import gas now that its own storage levels are heavily depleted (now at just under 12%). The question is where will that be drawn from. In recent weeks, neighbouring countries that relied on the expired transit deal have put pressure on Ukraine and the European Commission to reopen the transit agreement.

The above simply adds to the pressure pot and has injected yet more volatility to an already nervous market.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €51.16 (from €48.22) and the NBP Front Month contract at 128.56p (from 121.20p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 317mcm (315), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 55.08% (55.46%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 12 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €51, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €51, Front Season €51 (vs €51 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 129p, Front Season 124p (vs 121p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 133p (from 123p)
UK Power Base spot £114 (from £97)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £116 (£105) and Front Season at £91 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($77) and EUAs are at €83 (€80). Henry Hub is at $3.17 ($3.47) and JKM is at $14.30 ($13.99) with TTF Equiv of $15.62 ($14.74).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.