Market Insights 28/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 28/01/2025

A bearish start to the week as the concerns surrounding Freeport LNG potentially not exporting at the end of last week appear to have now passed and the European Commission confirming talks are continuing with Ukraine around transit gas towards Europe.

LNG cargoes from the US expecting to arrive in Europe account for more than 60% of those listed which helps to give some context as to why concerns around the US export market are now much more important – in replacement of concerns over Russian gas in recent years.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.86 (from €49.70) and the NBP Front Month contract at 120.15p (from 124.73p).

Asgard joins Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 320mcm (330), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 55.82% (56.11%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €48, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €48 (vs €48 and €50)
Curve NBP Front Month 120p, Front Season 118p (vs 125p and 122p)
UK Gas NBP spot 120p (from 123p)
UK Power Base spot £102 (from £93)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£107) and Front Season at £90 (£92).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($79) and EUAs are at €79 (€82). Henry Hub is at $3.70 ($4.03) and JKM is at $14.02 ($14.11) with TTF Equiv of $14.72 ($15.32).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.