DAILY MARKET REPORT – 27/01/2025
A volatile week ended with continued upside in Fridays session.
Weather playing a key part in recent weeks, as geopolitical undertones bed themselves in as we wait to see the impact of President Trumps second term in office as he put demands on other countries such as a drive to lower oil prices.
Temperature forecasts for the week ahead remain choppy. A mix of warm and colder days in the final days of January, a cold start to February for the first week before holding at seasonal normal levels for the remainder of the month. This view changes constantly and shows that long term forecasts are difficult to rely on.
Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €49.70 (from €49.12) and the NBP Front Month contract at 124.73p (from 123.50p).
Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 330mcm (325), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 56.11% (57.60%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (9).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €49, Front Season €50 (vs €50 and €49)
Curve NBP Front Month 125p, Front Season 122p (vs 124p and 121p)
UK Gas NBP spot 123p (from 128p)
UK Power Base spot £93 (from £95)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £107 (£103) and Front Season at £92 (£91).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($78) and EUAs are at €82 (€81). Henry Hub is at $4.03 ($3.95) and JKM is at $14.11 ($13.98) with TTF Equiv of $15.32 ($15.01).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 27/01/2025
Share