Market Insights 24/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 24/01/2025

A relatively flat day, slightly up on the previous, in the end seen in yesterdays session.

Concerns over weather impacts on US LNG exports have been the main focus in recent days.

On that topic President Trump said yesterday that he would ‘guarantee’ LNG supplies to Europe even if that meant an impact to the US domestic price in a bid to double-down on his outlook to be a global leader in energy exports.

In the UK a lack of wind earlier this week has now changed to extremely heavy winds with weather warnings in parts of the country.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €49.12 (from €48.72) and the NBP Front Month contract at 123.50p (from 122.87p).

Gullfaks remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 325mcm (334), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 57.60% (58.50%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 9 (9).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €50, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €50, Front Season €49 (vs €49 and €49)
Curve NBP Front Month 124p, Front Season 121p (vs 123p and 120p)
UK Gas NBP spot 128p (from 126p)
UK Power Base spot £95 (from £106)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£101) and Front Season at £91 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($79) and EUAs are at €81 (€79). Henry Hub is at $3.95 ($3.96) and JKM is at $13.98 ($14.12) with TTF Equiv of $15.01 ($14.88).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.