Market Insights 23/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 23/01/2025

A softer session yesterday after Freeport LNG in the US showed signs of restarting after being offline the previous day due to a power cut caused by bad weather.

Meanwhile temperature fluctuations in the weeks ahead are starting to show in the long term forecast which have previously shown a warmer than seasonal normal outlook. With it being February soon, this shouldn’t’ be unexpected but it adds to the potential mix of volatility to be expected at this time of year – particularly when combined with any other aggregating factors with supply side issues.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.72 (from €50.03) and the NBP Front Month contract at 122.87p (from 126.61p).

Gullfaks remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 334mcm (335), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 58.50% (59.38%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 9 (9).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €49, Front Season €49 (vs €49 and €50)
Curve NBP Front Month 123p, Front Season 120p (vs 127p and 123p)
UK Gas NBP spot 126p (from 130p)
UK Power Base spot £106 (from £261)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £101 (£103) and Front Season at £89 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($79) and EUAs are at €79 (€80). Henry Hub is at $3.96 ($3.76) and JKM is at $14.12 ($14.41) with TTF Equiv of $14.88 ($15.29).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.