Market Insights 22/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 22/01/2025

It was a relatively calm session yesterday until the afternoon saw an impressive rise pushing the curve to highs once again.

Despite the near-term prices being elevated due to low wind generation and some colder temperatures putting pressure on gas stocks, the further dated contracts also rose yesterday.

A combination of US LNG terminals closing due to forecast bad weather and Germany reviewing its regulatory framework in relation to refilling gas storage facilities ahead of next winter pushed the summer-winter spread even more negative making summer prices even more expensive than next winter. This makes it difficult to economically fill storages during those summer months where a positive spread is needed.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €50.03 (from €47.85) and the NBP Front Month contract at 126.61p (from 121.35p).

Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 335mcm (340), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 59.38% (60.24%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 9 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €50, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €50, Front Season €50 (vs €50 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 127p, Front Season 123p (vs 121p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 130p (from 129p)
UK Power Base spot £261 (from £156)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£99) and Front Season at £91 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($80) and EUAs are at €80 (€80). Henry Hub is at $3.76 ($3.95) and JKM is at $14.41 ($13.78) with TTF Equiv of $15.29 ($14.59).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.