Market Insights 21/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/01/2025

Markets started the week with a small upward movement in yesterdays session as the world waited for the inauguration of President Trump to office.

He has signed initial Executive Orders that include releasing more fossil fuels for global export and removing America from the Paris climate agreement. In recent years the US has become a key supplier of LNG for Europe following the halt of Russian pipeline gas.

In terms of market outlook for the near term, no significant change is expected for fundamentals with steady flows from Norway and the cold soon subsiding in the days ahead. EU gas storage is now just above 60% and following closely to the 2021 trend line for volume held at this time of year.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.85 (from €46.89) and the NBP Front Month contract at 121.35p (from 118.31p).

Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 340mcm (337), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 60.24% (60.97%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (6).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €48, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €48 (vs €48 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 121p, Front Season 118p (vs 118p and 116p)
UK Gas NBP spot 129p (from 131p)
UK Power Base spot £156 (from £179)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £99 (£96) and Front Season at £88 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($81) and EUAs are at €80 (€79). Henry Hub is at $3.95 ($3.95) and JKM is at $13.78 ($13.78) with TTF Equiv of $14.59 ($14.14).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.