Market Insights 20/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 20/01/2025

Markets finished upwards on Friday after a rollercoaster week following that aggressive rise on Monday.

Low wind today has pushed spot power prices to high levels once again. Day ahead prices set yesterday close to £200, with peaks hitting £500 in the late afternoon.

A mixed weather outlook in the latest forecast runs, showing some colder days this week and then turning warmer towards the end of the month and into early February before dipping cooler once again around mid-month.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.89 (from €46.24) and the NBP Front Month contract at 118.31p (from 116.39p).

Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 337mcm (324), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 60.97% (63.34%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 6 (7).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €47 (vs €47 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 118p, Front Season 116p (vs 116p and 114p)
UK Gas NBP spot 131p (from 119p)
UK Power Base spot £179 (from £108)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £96 (£96) and Front Season at £86 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($81) and EUAs are at €79 (€78). Henry Hub is at $3.95 ($4.26) and JKM is at $13.78 ($13.75) with TTF Equiv of $14.14 ($13.97).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.