Market Insights 16/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 16/01/2025

A fairly flat session yesterday with only small movements seen in most contracts.

It is worth pointing out however that the US Henry Hub month ahead contract has been creeping upwards for several months and is now about $4. The last time we saw it do this was in 2021 at the start of the energy crisis. The US is now a key market for Europe as we rely heavily on their LNG exports in replacement of Russian pipeline gas.

Next week sees the inauguration of President Trump for his second term in office. Decisions he makes in the coming weeks both in relation to direct energy policy such as LNG export plans but also those of political influence on other countries such as bringing the Ukraine conflict to an end, may cause some volatility to energy markets.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.01 (from €46.95) and the NBP Front Month contract at 118.45p (from 118.62p).

Njord on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 324mcm (324), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 64.15% (64.98%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €47 (vs €47 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 118p, Front Season 115p (vs 119p and 116p)
UK Gas NBP spot 120p (from 120p)
UK Power Base spot £127 (from £127)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £98 (£98) and Front Season at £86 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($80) and EUAs are at €78 (€77). Henry Hub is at $4.08 ($3.97) and JKM is at $13.91 ($14.14) with TTF Equiv of $14.17 ($14.17).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.