Market Insights 15/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 15/01/2025

A small downward movement seen in yesterdays session, but not enough to unwind the surge seen on Monday.

With continued discussion around whether or not Ukraine will be asked, or persuaded, to permit Russian gas flows to assist certain countries largely impacted by the end of the transit agreement, and the impact of continued sanctions on Russia, the market remains very nervous about what’s ahead.

Colder temperatures and low winds in recent weeks have dented the gas storage levels and a repeat over the coming weeks would cause further concern. That said the long term temperature outlooks suggest at or above seasonal normal levels to be expected – although these can change at any time.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.95 (from €48.26) and the NBP Front Month contract at 118.62p (from 121.50p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 324mcm (332), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 64.98% (65.85%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (10).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €47 (vs €47 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 119p, Front Season 116p (vs 122p and 119p)
UK Gas NBP spot 120p (from 125p)
UK Power Base spot £127 (from £111)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £98 (£100) and Front Season at £87 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($81) and EUAs are at €77 (€77). Henry Hub is at $3.97 ($3.93) and JKM is at $14.14 ($14.14) with TTF Equiv of $14.17 ($14.46).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.