Market Insights 14/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 14/01/2025

Just a couple of weeks into January and we’ve already had plenty of market activity – including some incredible spot power prices – but also yesterday saw a dramatic increase in prices along the near-term curve also.

EU gas storage levels are sitting around two-thirds full, which is lower than seen in recent years, thanks to the recent cold spell which now appears to have passed.

In addition to this US sanctions are now starting to impact targeted Russian oil and gas assets, with several Russian sourced LNG cargoes circling whilst they decide where they are permitted to dock. The EU is also considering further direct sanctions on Russian gas as part of its upcoming package.

Meanwhile it was reported yesterday that an attack was thwarted on the Turkstream pipeline which takes gas from Russia towards Turkey. With the recent end of the Ukraine transit deal, any damage to that pipeline would likely cause concern for European markets. There is growing annoyance from countries such as Slovakia to restart those flows and its Prime Minister has sent an open letter for President Zelenskyy asking for urgent talks on the subject.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.26 (from €45.01) and the NBP Front Month contract at 121.50p (from 113.07p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 332mcm (337), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 65.85% (66.38%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (7).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €48, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €48 (vs €48 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 122p, Front Season 119p (vs 113p and 111p)
UK Gas NBP spot 125p (from 117p)
UK Power Base spot £111 (from £102)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £100 (£93) and Front Season at £88 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($80) and EUAs are at €77 (€75). Henry Hub is at $3.93 ($3.99) and JKM is at $14.14 ($14.16) with TTF Equiv of $14.46 ($13.51).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.