Market Insights 09/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 09/01/2025

A bearish session seen yesterday across the curve, however much of the focus was on how tight the UK electricity system was.

Several notices were issued by National Grid ESO in an attempt to balance the system, and cashout prices hit £2,900 several times throughout the afternoon.

A lack of renewable generation, which is likely to repeat again tomorrow, alongside high demand thanks to colder temperatures seems to have really tested the limits – something rarely seen. Day ahead prices for tomorrow are already expected to be close, or perhaps even higher, for tomorrows delivery as a repeat is quite likely.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €45.56 (from €47.47) and the NBP Front Month contract at 114.03p (from 118.16p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 319mcm (330), Flow levels from Russia are now zero. EU gas storage showing at 68.83% (69.34%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (7).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45,DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €46 (vs €46 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 114p, Front Season 111p (vs 118p and 115p)
UK Gas NBP spot 119p (from 122p)
UK Power Base spot £104 (from £167)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £95 (£97) and Front Season at £84 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($77) and EUAs are at €72 (€74). Henry Hub is at $3.65 ($3.45) and JKM is at $14.23 ($14.27) with TTF Equiv of $13.77 ($14.44).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.