Market Insights 06/01/2025

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 06/01/2025

Welcome along to 2025. After a couple of weeks break over the festive period we are now back with our daily report. The historical values are left from our last report on 20th December to show the impact over the last couple of weeks. It has been an interesting period to say the least.

Over the last couple of weeks markets have increased in price level in response to the end of the Ukraine transit deal, which had been known and expected for some time, alongside the arrival of colder temperatures including snow in the UK. Those temperatures are expected to stay for the coming week or so before returning to seasonal normal levels.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €49.62 (from €43.08) and the NBP Front Month contract at 123.82p (from 107.33p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 336mcm (335), Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 0mcm (38.1) and Sudzha at 0mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 70.33% (76.73%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (9).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €50, Front Season €49 (vs €45 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 124p, Front Season 118p (vs 107p and 103p)
UK Gas NBP spot 122p (from 107p)
UK Power Base spot £86 (from £75)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£93) and Front Season at £90 (£79).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($73) and EUAs are at €76 (€68). Henry Hub is at $3.35 ($3.58) and JKM is at $14.36 ($13.46) with TTF Equiv of $14.98 ($13.11).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.