Market Insights 19/12/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 19/12/2024

A bit of a yo-yo set of sessions so far this week with several up and down movements between days.

Yesterday saw markets fall again after gains seen on Tuesday, but already this morning the market looks firm once again.

Underlying fundamentals including some warmer weather, strong supply levels and of course the festive break edging closer will all have a factor in the remaining days of the year when markets typically become a little quieter and positions are closed.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.01 (from €42.07) and the NBP Front Month contract at 101.50p (from 104.29p).

Kollsnes and Karsto remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 337mcm (337), Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.3mcm (38.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 77.09% (77.49%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €41 (vs €41 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 102p, Front Season 99p (vs 104p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 102p)
UK Power Base spot £63 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£90) and Front Season at £76 (£77).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($73) and EUAs are at €65 (€64). Henry Hub is at $3.37 ($3.31) and JKM is at $13.01 ($13.32) with TTF Equiv of $12.60 ($12.95).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.