DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/12/2024
A further downward push to get the week started seen in yesterdays session.
Warmer temperatures expected over the coming weeks, together with plenty of wind generation, will help alleviate the risk of rapid decline of EU gas stocks.
Last night the Ukrainian Prime Minister stated Ukraine was ready to accept a transit deal to flow gas towards Europe – provided it was not Russian gas – confirming the transit deal with Russia will certainly not be extended beyond 31st December.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.28 (from €41.22) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.39p (from 103.00p).
Kvitebjorn joins Kollsnes and Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 336mcm (331), Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.3mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 77.91% (78.24%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (8).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €40 (vs €40 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 100p, Front Season 96p (vs 103p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 95p (from 97p)
UK Power Base spot £83 (from £65)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£89) and Front Season at £74 (£76).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($74) and EUAs are at €65 (€64). Henry Hub is at $3.21 ($3.28) and JKM is at $12.77 ($13.09) with TTF Equiv of $12.40 ($13.19).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 17/12/2024
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