DAILY MARKET REPORT – 16/12/2024
A continuation of the soft direction was seen on Friday, pushing prices lower still after several weeks of generally bullish volatility.
Warmer weather now expected for the remainder of December in the latest temperature forecasts, as EU gas stocks now at below 80%.
This morning, eyes will be on the month ahead capacity auctions to see if anything will be booked for the expiring transit deal from Russian via Ukraine. Expired pricing is being used for the auction despite the long term deal ending on 31st December 2024 and no formal extension being agreed.
Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.22 (from €42.80) and the NBP Front Month contract at 103.00p (from 106.18p).
Kollsnes and Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 331mcm (331), Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (39.4) and Sudzha at 42.0mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 78.24% (80.16%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 8 (11).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €41 (vs €41 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 103p, Front Season 99p (vs 106p and 101p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 106p)
UK Power Base spot £65 (from £157)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £89 (£92) and Front Season at £76 (£78).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($73) and EUAs are at €64 (€66). Henry Hub is at $3.28 ($3.46) and JKM is at $13.09 ($14.95) with TTF Equiv of $13.19 ($13.19).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 16/12/2024
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