Market Insights 12/12/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 12/12/2024

A softer session seen yesterday which has calmed the front of the curve a little further.

Despite OMV issuing a statement last night confirming it has terminated its agreement with Gazprom Export, which is thought to run until 2040, due to breaches of the agreement. This relates to the disagreement over settlement of a dispute relating to 2022 and the subsequent non-payment of gas and then non-delivery of gas in recent weeks. That said, gas is still flowing as it was previous to this – just not being delivered to OMV.

A lack of wind this week has pushed UK spot power prices to eye-watering levels. Today it sits at over £200/MWh, but is expected to calm again over the coming days. The same is also the case across some European power markets.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.69 (from €45.55) and the NBP Front Month contract at 110.22p (from 112.91p).

Asgard remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 330mcm (327), Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.3mcm (39.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 80.90% (81.54%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 10 (11).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €44, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €44, Front Season €43 (vs €45 and €44)
Curve NBP Front Month 110p, Front Season 104p (vs 113p and 106p)
UK Gas NBP spot 110p (from 112p)
UK Power Base spot £215 (from £174)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £96 (£97) and Front Season at £81 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($72) and EUAs are at €69 (€68). Henry Hub is at $3.38 ($3.16) and JKM is at $15.00 ($15.02) with TTF Equiv of $13.77 ($14.04).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.