DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/12/2024
A small uptick in prices seen in yesterdays session on the curve.
Day ahead power prices saw a huge increase on the back of lower renewables output and limited nuclear capacity – which could remain the case for the coming days. Prices almost doubling to that of recent days at a baseload level with some delivery periods hitting almost £350/MWh.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly lower than seasonal normal for the remainder of this week, and slightly above next week, before settling close to normal into the New Year.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €45.55 (from €44.86) and the NBP Front Month contract at 112.91p (from 111.46p).
Kollsnes joins Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 327mcm (335), Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.8mcm (40.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 81.54% (82.05%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 11 (11).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €44 (vs €46 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 113p, Front Season 106p (vs 111p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 112p (from 111p)
UK Power Base spot £174 (from £114)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £97 (£96) and Front Season at £80 (£79).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($72) and EUAs are at €68 (€66). Henry Hub is at $3.16 ($3.18) and JKM is at $15.02 ($15.06) with TTF Equiv of $14.04 ($13.92).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 11/12/2024
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