Market Insights 09/12/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 09/12/2024

A calm end to the week as Fridays session ended flat to the previous days settlement.

Over the weekend escalations in the Middle East took a surprising turn with the long-standing government overthrown in Syria. Whilst it is not expected to cause direct impact to energy markets, any geopolitical activity can cause concern to global markets and it will be closely monitored.

Temperature forecasts for the weeks ahead, now dipping below seasonal normal for the weeks ahead to the end of the year, may impact heating demand as we look to close out 2024. However EU gas stocks still hold strong levels despite being withdrawn at a fast rate than recent years of late as eyes now focus towards Q1 forecasts.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.48 (from €46.55) and the NBP Front Month contract at 115.87p (from 116.00p).

Dvalin on unplanned outage this morning and we see a Norwegian flow nomination level at 332mcm (341), Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.0 mcm (39.4) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 82.38% (83.61%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK the next couple of weeks is 11 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €45 (vs €46 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 116p, Front Season 108p (vs 116p and 108p)
UK Gas NBP spot 116p (from 116p)
UK Power Base spot £94 (from £79)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £98 (£99) and Front Season at £82 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($72) and EUAs are at €68 (€67). Henry Hub is at $3.08 ($3.08) and JKM is at $15.08 ($15.07) with TTF Equiv of $14.41 ($14.43).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.