DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/12/2024
A very flat day in the end seen in yesterdays session as the settlement values hardly change day-on-day across the board.
No real change to fundamentals with plenty of LNG still heading towards the UK and Europe in the coming weeks, despite the threat of diversions towards Asia, alongside temperature forecasts looking close to seasonal normal in that period also. Physical flows also appear steady with both Norwegian and Russian flows holding steady – following a small dip for the first few days for the latter via Ukraine.
A ’watch this space’ therefore continues as to all of the above as the markets hold at these elevated levels for the time being.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.56 (from €48.66) and the NBP Front Month contract at 121.57p (from 121.62p).
No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 333mcm (326) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.1mcm (38.5) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (41.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 84.65% (85.17%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12 (12).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €48, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €46 (vs €49 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 122p, Front Season 112p (vs 122p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 121p (from 122p)
UK Power Base spot £126 (from £116)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£103) and Front Season at £85 (£85).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($72) and EUAs are at €68 (€69). Henry Hub is at $3.04 ($3.21) and JKM is at $15.13 ($15.12) with TTF Equiv of $14.99 ($14.97).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 04/12/2024
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