Market Insights 02/12/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 02/12/2024

Welcome along to December.

The end of last week ended relatively calm, however over the weekend physical flow nominations dropped from Russia via Ukraine and remain the same today. The comes as the transit deal ends in just a few weeks time. The market has already reacted this morning to the drop in nominations and we are now at very high price levels once again.

Despite some colder days this expected this week, the longer term temperature forecasts remain close to seasonal normal for the weeks ahead.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.81 (from €46.68) and the NBP Front Month contract at 119.56p (from 117.55p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 325mcm (328) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.8mcm (40.8) and Sudzha at 40.8mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 85.47% (86.65%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €46 (vs €48 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 120p, Front Season 111p (vs 118p and 109p)
UK Gas NBP spot 119p (from 118p)
UK Power Base spot £91 (from £100)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £100 (£93) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($73) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $3.36 ($3.20) and JKM is at $14.93 ($15.02) with TTF Equiv of $14.79 ($14.46).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.