Market Insights 27/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 27/11/2024

After a steady start to the day, which was looking promising to show a discount after Mondays rise, it was reported Gazprom are planning to release their 2025 outlook that excludes (or confirms) no transit deal to be in place via Ukraine.

This is already widely accepted by the market as the current deal expires at the end of December and whilst Russia are keen to extend it, Ukraine have stated for a long time now they have no intention of doing so. This potential acceptance from Gazprom pushed the market upwards late afternoon but the settlement still showed a discount to the previous day – likely the market realising this isn’t new negative news after all.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.22 (from €47.73) and the NBP Front Month contract at 118.29p (from 119.51p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm (331) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.6mcm (41.6) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 87.39% (87.68%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8 (9).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €46 (vs €47 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 118p, Front Season 111p (vs 120p and 112p)
UK Gas NBP spot 119p (from 120p)
UK Power Base spot £100 (from £110)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £95 (£97) and Front Season at £84 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($73) and EUAs are at €69 (€70). Henry Hub is at $3.47 ($3.37) and JKM is at $14.94 ($15.02) with TTF Equiv of $14.51 ($14.33).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.