Market Insights 26/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 26/11/2024

After a relatively calm start to the week, markets reacted to the confirmation from OMV that, as widely anticipated, they had intently withheld payment for October gas to Gazprom to balance the compensation due to them following the arbitration award. In response, Gazprom stopped delivering further gas to OMV, with the latter accepting that may be the end of the relationship and they expect no further deliveries – despite having a contract for supply lasting another 15 years. That may mean the two parties have further legal disputes to face into.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.73 (from €47.02) and the NBP Front Month contract at 119.51p (from 116.99p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 331mcm (340) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.6mcm (40.9) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (41.9). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 87.68% (87.89%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9 (10).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €46 (vs €48 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 120p, Front Season 112p (vs 117p and 110p)
UK Gas NBP spot 120p (from 108p)
UK Power Base spot £110 (from £63)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £97 (£96) and Front Season at £87 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($75) and EUAs are at €70 (€69). Henry Hub is at $3.37 ($3.13) and JKM is at $15.02 ($14.79) with TTF Equiv of $14.33 ($14.33).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.