Market Insights 25/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 25/11/2024

Markets ended the week with a softer session after rising prices all week, pushing new highs on Thursday.

Windy weather was expected in the UK at the weekend as Storm Bert hit which has caused flooding in parts but also returned wind generation to the stack resulting in negative pricing for power during selected hours over the weekend.

Markets continue to remain volatile and holding at elevated levels, despite plenty of LNG queuing towards Europe with 10 cargoes UK bound in the coming weeks and temperature forecasts showing close to seasonal normal for the rest of the year.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.02 (from €48.30) and the NBP Front Month contract at 116.99p (from 120.90p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm (340) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.9mcm (41.3) and Sudzha at 41.9mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 87.89% (89.40%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €45 (vs €47 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 117p, Front Season 110p (vs 121p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 108p (from 122p)
UK Power Base spot £63 (from £105)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £96 (£99) and Front Season at £86 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($74) and EUAs are at €69 (€70). Henry Hub is at $3.13 ($3.19) and JKM is at $14.79 ($15.08) with TTF Equiv of $14.33 ($14.83).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.