Market Insights 22/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 22/11/2024

The market pushed to yet new highs yesterday as outgoing US President Biden pushes further pressure on Moscow with the US Treasury sanctioning Russias Gazprombank. This is significant as in recent years Russia imposed new processes to only allow payments for Russian gas in Rubles – with European players utilising Gazprombank to convert currency to settle in local currency. With that process now under threat, this could be problematic and the market has shown its concern in yesterdays session.

This morning Ofgem confirmed the upcoming price cap effective 1st January 2025 at a headline rate of £1,738 – up just over 1% to the current October cap. This was in line with the expectations we released last week. Consumers should however be prepared for further rises in April unless wholesale markets lower considerably from their currently elevated levels in the coming weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.30 (from €46.80) and the NBP Front Month contract at 120.90p (from 117.15p).

Karsto remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm (340) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.3mcm (41.3) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 89.40% (89.87%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8 (9).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €49, Front Season €46 (vs €48 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 121p, Front Season 113p (vs 117p and 109p)
UK Gas NBP spot 122p (from 118p)
UK Power Base spot £105 (from £104)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £99 (£97) and Front Season at £86 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($73) and EUAs are at €70 (€68). Henry Hub is at $3.19 ($3.19) and JKM is at $15.08 ($14.66) with TTF Equiv of $14.83 ($14.43).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.