DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/11/2024
Despite the cold temperature forecasts passing after the coming days and plenty of LNG being sent towards Europe, markets remain high and unwound their previous days losses to put us back where we were again.
From January, the German gas storage surcharge will increase by 20%. This may impact wider markets outside of Germany and has concerned the market. Germany holds the largest gas storage capacity in Europe of 237 TWh, or around 23% of total European capacity, with 94% still in store.
As is usual when the colder temperatures kick in, we start to see unplanned outages on the Norwegian assets although output flow levels appear largely unaffected.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.80 (from €45.67) and the NBP Front Month contract at 117.15p (from 114.75p).
Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm (340) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.3mcm (41.3) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 89.87% (90.30%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9 (6).
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €48, UP €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €45 (vs €47 and €44)
Curve NBP Front Month 117p, Front Season 109p (vs 115p and 108p)
UK Gas NBP spot 118p (from 114p)
UK Power Base spot £104 (from £99)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £97 (£97) and Front Season at £84 (£83).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($73) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $3.19 ($3.00) and JKM is at $14.66 ($14.40) with TTF Equiv of $14.43 ($14.16).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 21/11/2024
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