Market Insights 20/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 20/11/2024

A softer session seen yesterday after hitting peaks in recent days.

Colder weather now upon us, especially in the UK where snowfall has even landed in parts, however the latest forecasts suggest this will pass and return close to seasonal normal levels in the coming days.

The recent price spikes have attracted LNG diversions towards the UK and Europe, which is why we see a larger queue forming than we’ve seen for some time.

Escalations between Russia and Ukraine have heightened in recent days with the use of US made missiles hitting Russia and the latter lowering its nuclear response levels.

Whilst gas still physically flows as it has done, the payment due from OMV to Gazprom is expected today. Despite that being at risk of not arriving, it seems clear that gas is not being delivered to OMV but to other parties. The market however keeps a close watch on the daily nominations.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €45.67 (from €46.90) and the NBP Front Month contract at 114.74p (from 118.68p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm (340) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.3mcm (41.3) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 90.30% (90.73%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6 (8).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €44 (vs €46 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 115p, Front Season 108p (vs 119p and 110p)
UK Gas NBP spot 114p (from 120p)
UK Power Base spot £99 (from £103)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £97 (£100) and Front Season at £83 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($73) and EUAs are at €68 (€70). Henry Hub is at $3.00 ($2.97) and JKM is at $14.40 ($14.65) with TTF Equiv of $14.16 ($14.54).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.