Market Insights 18/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 18/11/2024

Panic stations everyone! That was the state of the market in the final hours of last week as Gazprom reacted to OMVs intent to take action in recovering the €230m it was awarded.

Gazprom declared it would not deliver gas to Austria with immediate effect. The market was showing a small loss during the session but reacted to show a small gain in response to the news.

However nominations remained unchanged over the weekend and gas is physically flowing as it was before. The market has therefore breathed a sigh of relief this morning.

On top of that we have an influx of new LNG cargoes heading our way, just as the cold really starts to take hold during the course of this week and likely to stay below seasonal normal until the end of the year.

On Friday we released our Ofgem price cap forecast effective January – see our separate post and website for details.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.55 (from €46.22) and the NBP Front Month contract at 117.47p (from 116.69p).

Asgard and Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 334mcm (343) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.0mcm (40.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 90.99% (92.10%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €45 (vs €47 and €44)
Curve NBP Front Month 117p, Front Season 109p (vs 117p and 107p)
UK Gas NBP spot 114p (from 115p)
UK Power Base spot £108 (from £99)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £96 (£95) and Front Season at £84 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($73) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.82 ($2.79) and JKM is at $14.25 ($13.57) with TTF Equiv of $14.41 ($14.31).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.