Market Insights 15/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 15/11/2024

Whilst flows from Russia towards Europe through Ukraine are due to stop at the end of the year, the fear of that gas stopping earlier than planned worried the market considerably yesterday as it pushed to yet new highs.

As a result of OMV winning an award of around €230m in their dispute with Gazprom Export this may be offset by withholding payment due for gas already delivered in recent weeks – understood to be due on 20th November. If that payment is withheld the market is concerned that Gazprom may withhold further deliveries from as early as 21st November.

This comes at a time when the market is already concerned about supplies beyond the expiry of the transit deal but with temperatures expected to drop next week, this would come at a time of high demand.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.22 (from €43.67) and the NBP Front Month contract at 116.69p (from 110.78p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 343mcm (338) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.9mcm (41.4) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.10% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €44 (vs €46 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 117p, Front Season 107p (vs 111p and 103p)
UK Gas NBP spot 115p (from 113p)
UK Power Base spot £99 (from £106)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £95 (£91) and Front Season at £83 (£79).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($72) and EUAs are at €68 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.79 ($2.98) and JKM is at $13.57 ($13.56) with TTF Equiv of $14.31 ($13.54).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.