Market Insights 14/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 14/11/2024

A small sigh of relief seen in yesterdays session as prices didn’t rise any further and showed a small downside to the previous days settlement.

Slovakia confirmed that it has signed what it referred to as a ‘short term pilot’ deal to receive gas from Azerbaijan to compensate for the loss of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine which expires at the end of the year.

It is believed Germany has instructed its ports to reject Russian LNG cargoes, assumingly with immediate effect.

Colder temperatures are still expected next week which will hold nerves in the market.

Today is the final day of the Ofgem price cap calculation period for the January cap period. We expect to see a small increase to the current October cap of around 1%.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.67 (from €44.26) and the NBP Front Month contract at 110.78p (from 112.43p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 338mcm (345) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.4mcm (40.8) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.58% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €42 (vs €44 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 111p, Front Season 103p (vs 112p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 113p (from 109p)
UK Power Base spot £106 (from £112)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £91 (£92) and Front Season at £79 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($72) and EUAs are at €66 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.98 ($2.91) and JKM is at $13.56 ($13.57) with TTF Equiv of $13.54 ($13.75).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.