Market Insights 13/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 13/11/2024

Markets continued to push higher still yesterday.

Revised temperature forecasts for the week ahead show colder days to be expected in the coming week which will push heating demand. As gas is still making up the main input to power generation, this is also pushing power prices with them.

The front month contracts have not been this high for a year, last seen in November 2023. In the months that followed prices fell by half, but that was shortly (and partly due) to the energy crisis price levels which were considerably higher still. The market is in a very different place once again this winter, and there remains plenty of various and global concerns to hold prices firm.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.26 (from €43.73) and the NBP Front Month contract at 112.43p (from 110.56p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 345mcm (344) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.8mcm (41.2) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €43 (vs €44 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 112p, Front Season 104p (vs 111p and 103p)
UK Gas NBP spot 109p (from 111p)
UK Power Base spot £112 (from £106)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £92 (£92) and Front Season at £80 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($72) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.91 ($2.92) and JKM is at $13.57 ($13.55) with TTF Equiv of $13.75 ($13.66).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.