Market Insights 11/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/11/2024

The end of last week saw gas prices push even higher to hold at their highest levels seen for some time.

Revised colder temperature forecasts for the weeks ahead, now showing below seasonal normal levels for the remainder of the year, will have helped the bulls keep the market levels firm.

The Norwegian output appears back to full strength after several unplanned outages in recent weeks as gas stocks start to decline with withdrawals are now in full swing.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.41 (from €41.28) and the NBP Front Month contract at 107.41p (from 104.32p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 346mcm (332) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.9mcm (41.0) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.58% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €41 (vs €42 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 107p, Front Season 100p (vs 104p and 98p)
UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 104p)
UK Power Base spot £96 (from £97)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £90 (£87) and Front Season at £78 (£76).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($76) and EUAs are at €68 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.67 ($2.69) and JKM is at $13.55 ($13.50) with TTF Equiv of $13.34 ($13.07).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.