DAILY MARKET REPORT – 05/11/2024
Yesterday saw the start of the week unwind the losses enjoyed on Friday as official confirmation of any new transit deal failed to materialise and no capacity being booked to flow Russian gas past the current deals expiry at the end of the year put us back to where we were.
With lower renewable output, power spot prices have held high values in recent days but warmer temperatures have held off domestic heating season getting fully underway which will be helping balance the gas for power demand.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.30 (from €39.18) and the NBP Front Month contract at 102.46p (from 99.18p).
Visund on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 325mcm (339) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.2mcm (42.1) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.20% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, UP €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 102p, Front Season 95p (vs 99p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 102p (from 98p)
UK Power Base spot £116 (from £106)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £86 (£83) and Front Season at £75 (£73).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($73) and EUAs are at €65 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.78 ($2.66) and JKM is at $13.48 ($13.48) with TTF Equiv of $12.87 ($12.48).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 05/11/2024
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