Market Insights 04/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/11/2024

Whilst the market held on to the positive news surrounding a deal to flow Azeri gas through Ukraine when the Russian transit deal ends at the end of the year in Fridays session, it remains unclear as to whether a deal is actually agreed or not – with rumours suggesting there are, or have been, talks going on whilst others deny there is any deal done.

Whilst the market waits for confirmation either way, it enjoyed a downward session on Friday.

Temperature forecasts for the coming days and weeks showing warmer than seasonal normal which may also give some confidence to the market.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.18 (from €40.59) and the NBP Front Month contract at 99.18p (from 103.36p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 339mcm (335) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.1mcm (42.5) and Sudzha at 42.0mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.21% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €38 (vs €39 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 99p, Front Season 93p (vs 103p and 97p)
UK Gas NBP spot 98p (from 97p)
UK Power Base spot £106 (from £92)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£85) and Front Season at £73 (£73).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($73) and EUAs are at €64 (€65). Henry Hub is at $2.66 ($2.71) and JKM is at $13.48 ($13.62) with TTF Equiv of $12.48 ($12.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.