Market Insights 01/11/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 01/11/2024

Welcome along to November – and it’s an exciting start already.

A rather uneventful day until towards the close when, once again, unconfirmed reports of a potential transit deal to bring an alternative supply of gas into Ukraine when the Russian flow expires at the end of the year circulated in the closing hour – causing the market to quickly shed some premium, as much as 6% in places vs the previous days settlement.

Whilst it has not yet been confirmed, just like around a month ago, the market appears to show belief in there being a deal being possible and it continues to fall in early trading, with a further 4% off against the settlement.

Time will tell as to whether this is indeed a genuine deal done – but to have a similar rumour twice in a matter of weeks suggests talks are least taking place – and the market seems to like the idea.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.59 (from €41.38) and the NBP Front Month contract at 103.36p (from 104.74p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 335mcm (337) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.5mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.20% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €39 (vs €41 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 103p, Front Season 97p (vs 105p and 97p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 101p)
UK Power Base spot £92 (from £91)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£91) and Front Season at £73 (£76).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($73) and EUAs are at €65 (€65). Henry Hub is at $2.71 ($2.85) and JKM is at $13.62 ($13.52) with TTF Equiv of $12.93 ($13.18).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.