Market Insights 30/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 30/10/2024

A fairly flat day seen in yesterdays session with little movement across the curve.

Prices therefore continuing to hold at these levels for now whilst we approach the end of October, the first delivery month of the winter season, and head towards November which has seen some temperature forecast fluctuations in recent days.

Underlying fundamentals remain unchanged and concerns around activities in the Middle East and also those on the Ukraine-Russia border continue – perhaps now with an eye on the outcome of the US elections next week which may influence both energy and foreign policy depending on the outcome.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.87 (from €42.52) and the NBP Front Month contract at 107.22p (from 106.91p).

Skarv on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 336mcm (338) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.7mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.32% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €41 (vs €43 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 107p, Front Season 100p (vs 107p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 108p (from 106p)
UK Power Base spot £103 (from £104)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £96 (£94) and Front Season at £77 (£77).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($71) and EUAs are at €67 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.86 ($2.31) and JKM is at $13.69 ($13.76) with TTF Equiv of $13.57 ($13.48).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.