Market Insights 29/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 29/10/2024

Markets unwound the gains seen late last week after retaliatory strikes by Israel on Iran avoided energy infrastructure – receding some of the premium gained in recent sessions.

Markets however remain considerably nervous and hold considerable premium. Cooler temperature forecasts for the coming days also appear to have receded in the latest forecasts and are once again much closer to seasonal norms.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.52 (from €43.51) and the NBP Front Month contract at 106.91p (from 110.13p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 338mcm (332) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (39.2) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (41.9). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.31% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €41 (vs €43 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 107p, Front Season 99p (vs 110p and 101p)
UK Gas NBP spot 106p (from 106p)
UK Power Base spot £104 (from £94)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £94 (£95) and Front Season at £77 (£79).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $71 ($76) and EUAs are at €66 (€67). Henry Hub is at $2.31 ($2.56) and JKM is at $13.76 ($13.80) with TTF Equiv of $13.48 ($13.79).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.