Market Insights 28/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 28/10/2024

Markets closed at their highest levels seen for some time on Friday as colder forecasts for early November and continued concerns around activities in the Middle East pushed the premium higher still.

Below seasonal normal temperatures are expected in the coming days may see the start of gas storage withdrawals, although the levels still remain close to 95% – significantly above the mandated threshold of 90% by 1st November.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.51 (from €42.15) and the NBP Front Month contract at 110.13p (from 106.38p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm (322) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.2mcm (37.9) and Sudzha at 41.9mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.53% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €41 (vs €44 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 110p, Front Season 101p (vs 106p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 106p (from 106p)
UK Power Base spot £94 (from £106)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £95 (£93) and Front Season at £79 (£78).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($74) and EUAs are at €67 (€67). Henry Hub is at $2.56 ($2.52) and JKM is at $13.80 ($13.72) with TTF Equiv of $13.79 ($13.35).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.