Market Insights 25/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 25/10/2024

The market remains firm as it tackles with the continued concerns around escalations in the Middle East and also those on the Ukraine-Russia border. Those have been around for some time now, but show no signs of abating as the colder temperature forecasts start to creep in.

All contracts are now pushed upwards as a result, with spot prices leading the charge. In the UK these are now above £1 for gas and £100 for power. Near term futures are also not too far away from these levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.15 (from €41.38) and the NBP Front Month contract at 106.38p (from 103.68p).

Oseberg and Sleipner remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 322mcm (327) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.9mcm (37.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.26% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €40 (vs €42 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 106p, Front Season 99p (vs 104p and 98p)
UK Gas NBP spot 106p (from 104p)
UK Power Base spot £106 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £93 (£91) and Front Season at £78 (£76).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($75) and EUAs are at €67 (€65). Henry Hub is at $2.52 ($2.34) and JKM is at $13.72 ($13.60) with TTF Equiv of $13.35 ($13.08).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.