Market Insights 22/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 22/10/2024

An upward start to the week as we continue to hover around the key levels of £1 or €40 in the UK and Europe respectively for the front month contract which has been the case for some weeks now on and off.

Forecasts of new LNG projects coming online during 2025 have taken a hit as TotalEnergies confirmed that some of its projects have been pushed back to 2027 caused by US economics and political decisions.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.02 (from €39.20) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.15p (from 97.99p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm (331) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.4mcm (37.2) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.31% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 100p, Front Season 94p (vs 98p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 101p (from 97p)
UK Power Base spot £89 (from £57)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£85) and Front Season at £74 (£73).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($73) and EUAs are at €62 (€62). Henry Hub is at $2.31 ($2.26) and JKM is at $13.34 ($13.28) with TTF Equiv of $12.70 ($12.48).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.