Market Insights 21/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/10/2024

A small decline in prices seen in Fridays session to end a relatively quiet week.

Windy weather over the weekend saw spot electricity prices fall to low or negative values for selected hours which is expected to continue in the days ahead.

After several weeks of continued issues, the Norwegian assets are all back online and output is back to normal levels.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.20 (from €39.65) and the NBP Front Month contract at 97.99p (from 98.60p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 331mcm (304) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.2mcm (37.6) and Sudzha at 42.0mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.18% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €38 (vs €39 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 93p (vs 99p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 94p)
UK Power Base spot £57 (from £87)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£86) and Front Season at £73 (£74).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($74) and EUAs are at €62 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.26 ($2.35) and JKM is at $13.28 ($13.50) with TTF Equiv of $12.48 ($12.60).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.