Market Insights 17/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/10/2024

The daily yo-yo effect continues as yesterday saw a further small decline in price levels, but holding close to some key levels as they have done so now for a number of recent sessions.

EU Gas storage appears to have reached its limit as it now struggles to report values over the 95% marker. The EU required level of 90% by the end of this month was achieved some time ago.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.24 (from €39.97) and the NBP Front Month contract at 97.60p (from 98.80p).

Gullfaks remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 309mcm (325) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.7mcm (38.5) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.01% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €38 (vs €39 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 93p (vs 99p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 100p)
UK Power Base spot £91 (from £67)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £86 (£85) and Front Season at £74 (£76).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($74) and EUAs are at €63 (€65). Henry Hub is at $2.37 ($2.450) and JKM is at $13.47 ($13.61) with TTF Equiv of $12.51 ($12.78).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.