Market Insights 16/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 16/10/2024

A downward turn seen in yesterdays session as we once again follow the yo-yo trend seen commonly in recent weeks.

Some warmer temperatures are expected in the days ahead, and renewables have been pushing spot power prices to low (or negative) values for some hours and this may also continue in the days ahead.

Overall however, forward prices remain elevated as continuation of global events maintain a concern premium with them holding close to the £1/therm and €40 markers for the weeks and months ahead.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.97 (from €40.56) and the NBP Front Month contract at 98.80p (from 100.86p).

Oseberg and Gullfaks remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 325mcm (326) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.5mcm (38.1) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.02% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 99p, Front Season 95p (vs 101p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 97p)
UK Power Base spot £67 (from £86)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£88) and Front Season at £76 (£77).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($77) and EUAs are at €65 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.50 ($2.49) and JKM is at $13.61 ($13.11) with TTF Equiv of $12.78 ($12.98).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.