DAILY MARKET REPORT – 15/10/2024
An upward start to the week as the market reacts to unplanned issues with the Norwegian output and further developments in the Middle East and also that on the Ukraine-Russia border.
The market remains extremely nervous, despite holding a strong fundamental outlook for the days and weeks ahead, continuing to show the influence events have around the world.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.56 (from €39.88) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.86p (from 99.37p).
Oseberg and Gullfaks remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 326mcm (316) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.1mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.07% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €39 (vs €41 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 101p, Front Season 96p (vs 99p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 97p)
UK Power Base spot £86 (from £105)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£87) and Front Season at £77 (£76).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($79) and EUAs are at €66 (€65). Henry Hub is at $2.49 ($2.63) and JKM is at $13.11 ($13.08) with TTF Equiv of $12.98 ($12.80).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 15/10/2024
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