DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/10/2024
Back into the yo-yo of sessions as yesterday saw prices rise once again with the front month contracts back above those key levels of £1/therm and €40/MWh.
It is expected that Russian gas will increase to Hungary after a memorandum of understanding was signed yesterday. Hungary have suggested the access to additional capacity through the Turkstream pipeline may offset some of the loss of flow to Ukraine at the end of the year.
Warmer temperatures are expected next week for a few days before returning to seasonal normal.
Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.29 (from €38.34) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.42p (from 95.58p).
Gullfaks and Troll remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 321mcm (311) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.5mcm (38.5) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.74% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.
This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 100p, Front Season 96p (vs 96p and 92p)
UK Gas NBP spot 98p (from 95p)
UK Power Base spot £88 (from £73)
UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£83) and Front Season at £76 (£74).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($77) and EUAs are at €65 (€62). Henry Hub is at $2.68 ($2.66) and JKM is at $13.08 ($13.07) with TTF Equiv of $12.91 ($12.32).
Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.
Market Insights 11/10/2024
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