Market Insights 09/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 09/10/2024

After rising for much of last week on the back of the escalations in the Middle East, a softer session was seen yesterday after key price levels were hit on the front month contracts, suggesting some profit taking.

With no key driver to push markets in either direction, they remain idly nervous and continue to keep an eye on global geopolitical developments which remains a significant risk.

Fundamentally, the supply side remains strong with continued injections pushing gas storage levels to the brim, LNG continuing to head towards the UK and Europe in the weeks ahead and temperature outlooks remaining close to seasonal normal keeping demand in check.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €38.92 (from €40.24) and the NBP Front Month contract at 97.14p (from 100.86p).

Gullfaks joins Troll which remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 308mcm (311) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.61% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €38 (vs €39 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 97p, Front Season 93p (vs 101p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 93p (from 96p)
UK Power Base spot £79 (from £89)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £84 (£87) and Front Season at £74 (£76).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($81) and EUAs are at €60 (€62). Henry Hub is at $2.73 ($2.75) and JKM is at $13.10 ($13.14) with TTF Equiv of $12.52 ($12.96).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.