Market Insights 08/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 08/10/2024

A very small downward movement seen in yesterdays session as the nerves continue to hold over what comes next in respect of the ongoing concerns around tensions in the Middle East with oil prices continuing to rise as a result, now passing $80/bbl.

The Ukrainian Prime Minister confirmed in a press conference with his Slovakian counterpart that the gas transit deal with Russia will not be extended into to 2025.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.24 (from €40.98) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.86p (from 102.60p).

Troll remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 311mcm (316) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (38.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.56% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 101p, Front Season 96p (vs 103p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 98p)
UK Power Base spot £89 (from £92)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£87) and Front Season at £76 (£76).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($78) and EUAs are at €62 (€62). Henry Hub is at $2.75 ($2.85) and JKM is at $13.14 ($13.09) with TTF Equiv of $12.96 ($13.17).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.