Market Insights 07/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 07/10/2024

Continued concern over escalations in the Middle East pushed prices up further on Friday, with the front month gas contracts now above £1/therm in the UK and €40 on the Dutch TTF.

Colder temperatures are expected later this week and into the weekend before settling at seasonal normal again as just Troll remains slightly under full capacity on the Norwegian output as flows get back above the key 300 marker once again.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.98 (from €39.91) and the NBP Front Month contract at 102.60p (from 100.28p).

Troll remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 316mcm (301) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.0mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.42% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €39 (vs €41 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 103p, Front Season 96p (vs 100p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 98p (from 96p)
UK Power Base spot £92 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£85) and Front Season at £76 (£74).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($78) and EUAs are at €62 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.85 ($2.97) and JKM is at $13.09 ($13.10) with TTF Equiv of $13.17 ($12.91).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.